Re: tesla report, about as expected. the call will be interesting. awesome to see...
At least now you agree with me that it was a little bet bloated. :)
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 Reply to luvb2b - Msg #597 - 02/20/2013 16:36
tesla report, about as expected. the call will be interesting. awesome to see gross margins are already +8%, and will be mid teens by next quarter.
their spending is going down, which means so is their cash burn for now. i am trying to figure out how they can be profitable next quarter with 4500 cars sold and as much as they have in expenses.
i am guessing what they are projecting internally is something like 4500 x 80000 = 360m in revenue, with around $55m gross profit. with expenses declining and taking out interest and depreciation you'd get to a near zero result on eps for next quarter. i guess that means roughly $70m in quarterly sg&a and r&d expenses.
that means maybe by q4, you could do 5000 x 80000 x 0.25 = $100m in gross profit, then back out your $70-75m in quarterly expenses excluding interest & depreciation, and you got a $25m net profit, so maybe 20-25c eps in q4? i guess you're looking at tops 50c eps this year, with next year probably well over $1 with the model x intro.
you could get incremental upside to units and margins, which might add another quarter to eps at the end of the year. the stock's up almost 50% coming into earnings. it will take additional reservations growth to give you this upside. you may not see that until march when the spring car buying season rolls around.
the report is good, and expected, but i don't think it's going to satisfy all the recent call buyers. you might get some more interesting nuggets on the conference call.
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