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From: luvb2b (Rep: 2080) reply to luvb2bDate: 02/22/2018 19:38
Forum: Roku, Inc. - Msg #576Thread #673992716 (Rec: 0)
i mean hell, for this quarter my estimate was way better than the street. you recall i had been thinking they could make money on a gaap basis this quarter for some time. so i have to trust my modeling until the financials tell me otherwise. Re: so i went through my earnings model and their guidance. my view is they are ...



"There are those who market trades, and there are those who trade markets.

There are those who follow marketers, and those who follow markets.
The marketers feast on their followers; the traders feast on the markets." -luvb2b

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Reply to luvb2b - Msg #575 - 02/22/2018 19:37

so i went through my earnings model and their guidance. my view is they are massively sandbagging guidance. i come with q1 earnings estimates much better than they forecast. even the revenue forecast seems *impossibly* low. my guess is the crappy guidance, lack of analyst coverage, newness of the company, and the upcoming lockup expiration will combine to put some pressure on the share price in coming weeks and months.

but i think i will keep my core long holding and then look for strategic addition points - especially if we can trade into the 30s again on the fear of the lockup expiry.

even the analyst estimates i reviewed were stupidly low. for example, the q4 2018 estimate of a profit is right around the profit they just reported. and excluding one timers they would have reported an even *higher* profit. the street's numbers are just way too low is what my modeling shows.

that said always manage risk... my core shares are from much lower and i have taken enough out of this stock that i am in a very good position to just hang on and then add later. your mileage may vary.


Re: had my GPRO scenario in my head. helped this time. I'm watching that $37-$38 ...
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