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Forum - Wall Street Pit (DermTech - DMTK)    Stock Due Diligence for All

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From: steeledge (Rep: 889) reply to efbaileyDate: 01/13/2020 14:08
Forum: Wall Street Pit - Msg #2811176 - List DMTK msgs Thread #674116563 (Rec: 1)
really appreciate the summary!
Re: cliff notes from the S1, rebought trader acct and avg'd up in IRA recently.

Reply to efbailey - Msg #2811165 - 01/13/2020 13:16

cliff notes from the S1, rebought trader acct and avg'd up in IRA recently.

They are the only co offering a non-invasive genomics test for melanoma and recently got approved for Medicare reimbursement which goes into effect Feb 10th at $760 per test and has an NPV of 99%
Currently industry standard practice is surgical biopsy at avg cost of $947 and has a NPV of 83%
NPV measures the probability that a negative result is truly negative.

Patents that are good to 2029 plus others pending. Licensed in all 50 states. 6000 sf lab currently has a capacity of 50,000 test and they are currently adding automation to expand to 100,000 per yr. and with additional facility and investments play to scale to 1,000,000 per yr.

Currently there are over 3.5 million surgical biopsies per yr and over 95% are negative. DMTK's PLA test would eliminate unneeded biopsies at a cost savings of nearly $200 ea.

They have currently secured six contracts with major preferred provider networks, including MultiPlan Inc., FedMed, Inc., America’s Choice Provider Network, Three Rivers Provider Network, Inc., First Health Group Corp., and Midlands Choice, Inc. In addition, they have established contracts with Carefirst BCBS of Maryland, Inc. and Tricare West and submitted clinical and technology assessment packages to CareCore National, LLC dba eviCore healthcare, LLC, approximately 20 large payer partners, and a number of large commercial payers, including Aetna Inc., Cigna Corporation, UnitedHealthcare and Humana Inc., all of which are currently under review.

Company believes the total market opportunity for the PLA test in the US is $1.75- $3+ billion per yr. That's obviously down the road a bit but I can see them scaling to 100,000 capacity by end of 2020 which would put their revs at $76mil per yr. They did $2.4mil in 2018.

Current mkt cap is under $120mil, imo this could be a 10 bagger just off the PLA and Nevome test potential plus they have other products in the pipeline.
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