|lol Hand, you are entertaining if nothing else... |
"... Whats Up with the traders from the Cove always Trying to Tell people what to do or always telling people to Stay away from stocks that are the next doubles??? ..."
I know that it is beneficial to throw out absolutes, but it certainly doesn't make it true.
I only tell my children what to do up until they are of age and out on their own. I do, however, frequently try to engage adults in discussion over probable/possible differences of opinion.
I have "never" (absolute inserted on purpose) told someone to stay away from a double. I frequently point out issues/concerns which may impact the ability for the price to get there. And even then, I try very hard to caveat the time frame in which I see the dynamic as having an influence.
"... now I don't want to get into the fundamental analysis vs technical analysis debate and which one i think is more useful, but even when you do fundamental analysis but you don't come to the right conclusions or interpretations of how the market moves and its timing what good is it? ..."
Aside from the strange sentence construct, I assume you are suggesting your understanding of market movement/timing trumps? Isn't market movement/timing a fundamental dynamic considered in the mix? Perhaps I agree with you because I use an "outside-in" approach to evaluating potential. The huge difference I see with you and I is that I don't overlook/dismiss as many obstacles as you. That is unless you are referring to the "wink-wink" market movement/timing phenomena which is a whole different ball game and really can't be openly discussed given that drives one in the direction of questioning the person and/or character. You may post a "guess" as to the removal of the Cove and attempt to assassinate its character; I'll choose not to return the favor.
"... Yea company x does a shelf, well you ever think that might be a reason to buy because now the incentive is to see the stock higher for that syndicate? ..."
Yes, I think about it "every" (absolute inserted on purpose) time.
"... It all depends on which syndicate is behind the move. ...
Respectfully disagree with your use of "all." There are several factors, and I judge the most important as the company's choice of amount and use of proceeds when determining the dilution trade off benefit.
"... I'm afraid you are scaring people out of potentially good trades. ..."
Have seen several posts now on Fear -vs- Greed. IMO that's all convenient wording of extremes to cloud the issue. But let's play this out--
1. No discussion, stock tanks
2. Discussion, stock tanks
3. No discussion, stock becomes multi-bagger
4. Discussion, stock becomes a multi-bagger
and all the various levels between tanking and landing on the moon...
Discussion on a message board or not, the stock will do what it will do based on some of the data that could be discussed.
Here's the key to it all. Is it that one doesn't want people to miss an opportunity for themselves, or does one need people to make an opportunity more probable for oneself?
So here's what I have observed at the averages. If one is "fighting" for selfless community opportunity, then one challenges the data given it does have an influence on direction. If one is "fighting" for self-centered personal opportunity, then one challenges the data presenter given they may have an undesired influence on a decision.
"... Its all about timing ...''
Yes except you also should consider-- before jumping in a double-dutch line -- whether they are swinging rope or barbed wire. I'm not afraid of barbed wire, but I certainly respect its damage potential. It's then a matter of deciding 1.) if its the best game in town at this moment; and 2.) am I willing to endure the pain if I miss-step? Because its certainly not the only game in town-- finviz is currently tracking 6681 of them...
I truly wanted to step away from here quietly, but I am compelled to respond given I am one of the Cove's co-founders. Having said that, you may have the parting shot(s) as I will not respond but I will leave with this piece to ponder that I ran across recently...
Here’s the paradox: The odds are overwhelming I will end up richer by aiming for a good return rather than a brilliant return -- and sleep better en route. Folks who seek a killing usually get killed. Gunslingers get shot, and often in the foot, with their own guns.
While there is always some guy around on a red-hot streak, his main function is to tempt the rest of us into becoming fools and paupers. A return of 15% to 20% annually is a lot more than most folks realize, or need.
If a 30-year-old with $10,000 in an IRA gets 15% annually, he’ll be a millionaire before normal retirement. That’s the power of compound interest. If that same 30-year-old were to sock away another $2,000 per year at 15%, he would end up as a 65-year-old $3 million fat cat. At 20%, it’s an incredible $13 million. That’s a lot, but it’s not too much to ask.
The two most definitive studies ever on long-term returns, the Ibbotson/Sinquefield and Fisher/Lorie studies, both point to average annual returns for stocks of 9% plus per year going back to the mid-1920s. So 15% to 20% per year is really 66% to 100% better than the market as a whole. That’s tough but doable.
Consistency is the key. It is close to impossible to get a good, long-term rate of return if you suffer serious negative numbers en route. It’s the math. A single year that is down 30% means you have to get 30% per year positive returns for the next four years to get back on track for a 15% annual average. Or, if you score 20% annually for four years, and then suffer a 30% decline, your five-year average return is only 7%.
-- Ken Fisher, Forbes, 1989
Sincere best fortunes wished for you and all members of the Lion
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A strong Fundamental Foundation (What it is) is a good balance to Emotional Tugs (How it feels)
| Reply to invisiblehand - Msg #1913739 - 04/02/2010 00:45|
Never Mind I guess the Lion finally saw through smoke and mirrors and Suspended that thread, too bad we all had to go through a week of hearing about gurus this and gurus that, I really have been enjoying reading the posts on the lion recently, seems way less drama these days and more relevant stock analysis and winning ideas.
I for one welcome that change, I personally was disgusted when this thread was taken over by infantile obsessions of which anonymous internet persona was going to be the next guru.
Post your picks, voice your opinion but the site is so much better without all the nonsense.
That s my .02 cents and my apologies for when I ever went off track for the real person we are here and in engaged in time wasting banner.
Now enjoy the weekend all.