|From: giggy (Rep: 15)||Date: 04/09/2012 09:49|
|Forum: Wall Street Pit - Msg #2256476 - List CYCC msgs ||Thread #673384684 (Rec: 0) |
|Ten folds possibility - Demanding $350 million market cap now!|
Not many biotechs in pivotal trials for first-line therapy in an under-served market carry such low valuations-now at $35 million market cap, not $350 million where it now should be.
*Ten folds possibility?"
Cyclacel is currently running the SEAMLESS Phase 3 study for sapacitabine in acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) in elderly patients. AML is not especially common (fewer than 14,000 new cases a year in the US), but it is difficult to treat...Roughly half of all new AML cases are in the elderly and their prognosis is bleak - more than one-third can be expected to die in two months or less and many forgo treatment altogether because of the high toxicity of treatment and the low expected survival benefit.
Thus far, sapacitabine has shown encouraging data with respect to survival. An early-stage single-arm study showed a 30% one-year survival rate (and a complete remission rate of 25%), while a more recent study of sapacitabine in combination with Astex Pharmaceuticals' (ASTX) Dacogen (licensed to Eisai) showed less than 10% mortality at 2-month follow-up.
If the phase 3 data from SEAMLESS supports FDA approval in AML, the sales potential would likely fall between $250 million and $450 million a year.
AML is not the only possible indication for this drug. Cyclacel is also pursuing studies in myelodysplastic syndrome (where Dacogen is also approved) and that could be worth just as much as the AML indication. Cyclacel is also exploring the use of sapacitabine in treating non-small cell lung cancer and other tumors; the lung cancer indication alone would likely chip in another $300 million to $400 million in revenue.
Cyclacel is not just a one-drug story, either. Seliciclib is oral cyclin dependent kinase (CDK) inhibitor that has shown potential efficacy in non-small cell lung cancer and could have broader uses as well. While a small phase 2 study did not show any improvement in progression-free survival, there was a notable improvement in overall survival (about 4 months).
Assigning zero value to seliciclib (despite some suggestions of efficacy) and the preclinical pipeline is conservative,... That said, these shares look as though they could be worth close to $3 on the basis of sapacitabine in AML and MDS, even with a very high discount rate.
^Last month an institutional buyer ADDED 4 million shares.
That looks like a huge bargain compared to the sub-$0.70 price today. *It should be $7.00 now*
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