Re: Everything you said is false, except the Euro fear and macro econ Fear might ...
those are good points, however I was referring to guiding down vs analysts expectations, which were $9.5, and was referring to major catalysts such as mkt moving product launches, they can always surprise...this is the first full q with ipad3 sales
moves from Apr e's going back seem to be more of sideways consolidation, at least last few yrs, but now there is nice fat gap to fill, a retrace to 100 day EMA is possible this summer, which isn't necessarily terrible and would be healthy, it is now around 525 but is naturally moving up everyday
Apr 2009 - gap up on e's to 127, sideways around 127 for a month
Apr 2010 - gap up on e's to 260, stock sideways until Sept
Apr 2011 - gap up on e's to 355 , stock was sideways to down until july
Apr 2012 - gap up on e's to 615 , ??????
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disclaimer: good luck, markets are systems to fool the masses
 Reply to alvintantri - Msg #2263297 - 04/25/2012 12:39
Everything you said is false, except the Euro fear and macro econ Fear might have some points:
- they guided lower for q3?? False. In fact, they upped guidance from 8.5 eps to 8.7 eps. a 3% increase.
- no catalyst. False. They just announced WWDC 2012, New OS Mountain Lion, New Macbook lineups, and iOS 6 on the horizon with possible iPod refresh.
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/12/04/25/apple_to_kick_off_2012_worldwide_developers_conference_on_june_11.html
- if you listen to the CC, Apple said iPad demands is off the chart, supply cannot fulfill demand. iPad not even launched in China yet (talking about 500% vertical YoY growth). They said iPad will be higher sequentially in next 2Q.
- With back to school in Sep qtr, iPad sales and Mac sales will be higher. They will announce new Mac OS and Mac hardware lineup in June, ready for Fall Back to School Program
- iPad and Mac will be the star in the next 2 qtr, then iPhone 5 launch for the holiday..
- Plus Facebook IPO next month should be another catalyst.
- Totally agree on Europe and broad macro condition though. However, Olympics will be in London this summer = huge GDP boost for UK and Europe. and Euro Football 2012 will also take place = huge GDP boost.
- Always good to be cautious though.
Re: things to consider: they guided lower for q3 (i know they always do) and no ... |
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