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Forum - Wall Street Pit (Avis Budget Group - CAR)    Stock Due Diligence for All

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From: mflutie1 (Rep: 23) reply to mflutie1Date: 05/23/2020 13:05
Forum: Wall Street Pit - Msg #2848936 - List CAR msgs Thread #674151814 (Rec: 0)
Avis-Budget longer term play just got better with Hertz BK. Hertz owns Thrifty and Dollar...they will restructure, but for a time major competition is now going to be Enterprise & the little no-names. That will equal more market share for Avis-Budget as reopening/recovery strengthens & peeps begin to vacation travel again, It will only add to CAR bottom line. There will be some hurt from diminishing business travels not renting and from used car prices dropping when Hertz sells off some of it's fleet. (btw: if you are in the market for a used car, Hertz will be selling off a lot of their fleet at bargain prices.)
The reason behind the Hertz bankruptcy- Hertz financed its fleet & if the value of the asset-backed vehicles debt dropped, due to lower used-car prices, it would have to make up the difference in cash payments. Hertz failed to make such a payment in April, and the company was given until Friday to develop a strategy around COVID-19 realities.They could not.
Avis-Budget is in a better position to handle those realities.

I'm in from $13.97 & already +20%. My previous post "a nice shot at recovery giving maybe 200-250% increase" looks very solid.
Up to mid Feb before Corvid19 CAR had been low to mid $30's, then climbed starting Feb 10 into $40's & topped out $52.98 on Feb 20. A double from my entry brings it to $28ish, easily imNho, a triple brings it back to $41-$42- very doable.. Hertz BK just adds to those target.

Thinking Tuesday CAR price will DROP with HTZ sympathy & give a better picking up price. Anyone diving in now from current is looking at a probable 100%+ & possible 150% winner with patience in to the 4th quarter & 2021.



Re: another one to get with a lot of room to move back towards recovery. Avis Bu...



Reply to mflutie1 - Msg #2842290 - 05/04/2020 21:31

another one to get wityh a lot of room to move back towards recovery. Avis Budget Group reported today - Q1 loss, tops revenue estimates.with $1.75 billion for the quarter, compared to year-ago revenues of $1.92 billion. Considering how travel dropped off the cliff mid March that's not too shabby.

Just before crash it spiked to mid/hi $40s with a dabble at low $50s before the rug pull. But let's forget that pop area. From late December til then it was nicely in lower $30s. Currently $13.97. So a nice shot at recovery giving maybe 200-250% increase.
What interests me is their outlook tonight.
"The look ahead from Avis Budget (NASDAQ:CAR) was about what you would expect with travel demand at a standstill. The company says its sees revenue down 80% in April and May before a gradual recovery begins June and incremental improvement is recorded after that"
"Our current reservations show improvement in June and sequentially increase over the balance of the summer. In markets where shelter in place restrictions are being lifted, we are seeing early indications of improving demand, leaving us optimistic for Q3."
Avis Budget was down as low as $6.35 on March 18 (wouldn't THAT have been a hell of a pickup!) so already have doubled from that low.

imNho this is a buy looking to at minimum double from here to higher $20's sometime towards later summer, & quite possibly triple to hi $30's
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