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Forum - Wall Street Pit    Stock Due Diligence for All

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From: franconia (Rep: 144) reply to FaithaloneDate: 05/23/2020 14:40
Forum: Wall Street Pit - Msg #2848944Thread #674159456 (Rec: 0)
Re: thats like .004% and that number died with not from, we already know that abo...

Don't want to get into your argument with another poster, but making light of the death rate of 1:23,000 on the planet due to coronavirus thus far is sort of foolish.

Sure 1 out of 23,000 sounds like a small number if you are NOT a deep thinker (or even moderately smart). Why?

1. The virus is new and hasn't infected, or had a chance to infect most people living on the planet. Its just begun.

2. Within populations that have experienced infection, the kill rate is high. In the US as of yesterday there are about 1.6 million cases, and the number of deaths nearing 100,000.

3. Knowing the number of cases and deaths in the US you can better calculate how much in danger the worlds population is.

Some BIG variables.... unknown unknowns to borrow a phrase.

IF the world population eventually has the same ratio of cases to deaths as we know we've had in the US thus far then you can project a world kill off of humans.

7,594,000,000 people on the planet / 1,600,000 infected in the US = 4746

If everyone were infected and the death rate is the same as in the US the world would lose 100,000 X 4746 = 474 million people !!

I'm sure you'd agree the loss of a half billion people world wide-would be a stunning tragedy. Lets check our math again.

Of the 1.6 million known infections in the US 100K died. That's a ratio of 1:16

However, most cases of most viruses go uncounted because people tend not to visit the doctor with mild symptoms.

*** So lets be generous and say that a full 2/3rds of everyone who eventually gets coven-19 does NOT go to the doctor or report it. In other words that would suggest there have actually been 5,000,000 million in the US of which there are 100K deaths. How many deaths does that project in the world if everyone gets it.

That's still 158,000,000 million people. Many experts say World War II had about that many people die from all causes.

There's no question that the world is at war with this pandemic. Its serious.

If you are over 60 with any complications you'd probably be safer riding a motorcycle without a helmut driving from NYC to Boston at 90 mph.

PS... that's why debilitating the spread of the disease, masks on, contact distancing, washing hands, not picking your nose, etc is leadership.



Reply to Faithalone - Msg #2848921 - 05/23/2020 10:49

thats like .004% and that number died with not from, we already know that about the topline number now as states like colorado have shown. Re: 1 person in 23,000 on the planet has died from the virus. You really need to ...

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