I AM A BEGINNER: Started trading at november 2008 . First buy at 17 november. So when I say that I am a beginner I truely mean it!
I started a new forum to avoid the stupendous spam I was producing in the pit
Convertable debt and yorkshire
READ THIS POST: http://www.thelion.com/bin/forum.cgi?tf=wall_street_pit&msg=1738563&cmd=r&t=
MY TAKE ON VOLUME: http://www.thelion.com/bin/forum.cgi?tf=wall_street_pit&msg=1923679&cmd=r&t=
list of indices http://www.thelion.com/bin/forum.cgi?tf=wall_street_pit&msg=1742307&cmd=r&t=
Check this forum for books: http://www.thelion.com/bin/forum.cgi?tf=the_book_club&msg=1&cmd=r&t=
level 2 interpretation: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKgAvLRb0Eg&feature=channel_page
Started trading at november 2008 . First buy at 17 november. So when I say that I am a beginner I truely mean it!
My posts often are to test my theories or to broadening my field of vision and understanding. You would be an idiot to follow my train of thought or take my posts as a directive. Again, I am a beginner and I will without a doubt be wrong ever so more often than that I would be right. When I take a contrary position to a claim someone stakes it does not have to mean that I agree with the position I take. Basically it is intended to discover boundaries of the discussed domain. What that means is that I can get clear answers as to where the limits of a certain concepts are.
- EARNINGS REPORTS are often bloated, dont look at the obvious numbers. One off income is often booked as profit while one off expense is booked against reserve. Profit per share will be fluffed. Good example is GM which made good profit per share in 2005 but due to accounting rules they were allowed to place the "31 billion pension related expenses" in a sidenote. GM was allready down for the count years ago.
- News is your enemy, dont follow newspaper headlines, television advice. It's more a contra indicator that will make you lose money.
- The market is not your ticket to free money, as long you percieve it as such you will be the ticket to free money for someone else.
- When you have a few winning bets do NOT increase the bets until you have lived through a number of losing bets.
- Margin is baaaad.
- You are betting against people with 30+ years of experience. That makes you free money. Never bet against the big players. Let the big players work for you. How I dont know... yet.
- Trading is hard. Its not gambling since there are people out there that consistently beat the market. This is proof for me to learn. To become like those people. My weapon is my mind. Improve knowledge and understanding in order grow.
- Never get into trades aiming to earn back losses. Enter trades because there is a realisitc chance to gain income. When income grows, losses will shrink. That understanding removes alot of bad emotion. Bad emotions make you screw up.
- Check charts before you trade. LVS lost me a bit due to not checking the chert before the buy, nor before the sale. I bought a top at resistance and sold at support. Well done me! Allways check THREE charts for instance 10/15 minute, hourly and daily. Timeframes often contradict eachother.
- NRGN, if i haddent scalped this I would be a loss. But had a major position which I held through earnings while there was an ongoing concern.. allways sell at least half if not more of your position right before earnings ....
- Dont reenter big pop plays too soon. No matter how good the setup etc. After a pop it will drop, during that drop there will be minor bumps up. I keep murdering my gains by getting in too early. Take a breather, take some time off of the stock. Wait for a valid setup, keep your cool.
- Dont trade when tired or fed up, it leads to sloppyness. Losses will be a self fulfilling prophecy - been leaking gains down the drain lately due to information overload and exhaustion from my day job.
There have been many gains, some big calls as well .. the important stuff are the losses though. Some below
- 36% of portfolio PLD due to margin, stupid me. Paniced sold, it rose, panicked again, bought and it dropped yet again. Didnt check charts, let emotion rule.. and worst of all.. used margin with next to no trading experience.
- 30% prxi. Never chase, never chase, never chase, never chase. This position turned in a long hold. Should have sold out at 10% loss if i had a viable alternative that could quickly make money. Too late so holding for a gain. Might take a long time for the catalyst (sahre buyout) to hit the market.
- 34% mesa (didnt take the loss though so that was recoverred), made my classic mistake again, right after the 100% pop I got in too early instead of waiting for the weak hands to be shaken out. Need to put more effort into volume statistics. My guess now is that the sheer volume at the top of a spike needs to be shaken out first before the stock can make another move. The greater the amount of chasers, the greater the percentage of weak float and the dumber the stock gets. That percentage of dumb traders need to be moved out of the stock because they are volatile and emotional. As the stock drops those sellers will start selling their shares to people that ahve less anxiety (perhaps smarter, perhaps because they bought lower). At some point the shares in weak hands run out and the percentage of dumb float deteriorates along with the volume. At that bottom prices will become volatile because low volume stock are much like low float stock. OBV played a key role here.
The following list will be moved to some external blog location or something, for now this sig will be growing.
2) use google with the following search terms (make sure youhave the book title, or parts of it, in quotes): rapidshare "<bookname here>"
3)use google with the following search terms (make sure youhave the booktitle, or parts of it, in quotes): filetype:pdf "<bookname here>"
BOOKS & ARTICLES:
The intelligent investor (Graham & Dodd): http://www.4shared.com/file/17137343/b6ff074e/the_intelligent_investor_-_benjamin_graham.html?s=1
Security analysis (Graham): http://www.4shared.com/file/48029557/44f7d0f/Benjamin_Graham__David_Dodd_-_Security_analysis.html?s=1
>> CREDIT CRISIS EXPLAINED <<
BDI (Baltic dry index): http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
Needed to value shipper prices. The prices indiced by this index represent the advices shipping rates. If this moves up Shippers such as DRYS and GNK go up.
FEAR INDEX (VIX):
SECURITY SCREENING TACTICS:
sec flings: http://secwatch.com/insidertrading/
CBOE Market data: http://www.cboe.com/data/mktstat.aspx
sep - gold
watchlist 25 apr: http://www.thelion.com/bin/forum.cgi?tf=wall_street_pit&msg=1928425&cmd=r&t=
JTX per apr 18 watchlist: +21 % http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JTX&id=p38254964219&def=N&listNum=1
watchlist apr 18: http://www.thelion.com/bin/forum.cgi?tf=wall_street_pit&msg=1923655&cmd=r&t=